2. Get to the Right Answer

Guiding Question: What do the facts and data actually say?

The second imperative is about finding truth. You’ve structured the problem, and now you need to answer it with evidence, not opinion.

Core Actions

2.1 Design Hypothesis-Testing Analyses (5) 🔺

Build analyses that will prove or disprove critical assumptions

Don’t just gather data. Design specific analyses that will prove or disprove your critical hypotheses.

Recruiting Application	Client Work Application
Design how you’ll test your fit for each firm: what specific evidence will you gather?	Design analyses that directly test your “what would have to be true” conditions

Analysis Design Principles:

Start with the output: What slide/exhibit will this create?
Work backward: What data do you need?
Consider alternatives: What would disconfirm your hypothesis?
Be efficient: What’s the minimum analysis to decide?

2.2 Build an Outside-In Fact Base (5)

Gather external data before relying on internal opinions

Gather facts from external sources before relying on internal opinions. Public information reveals a lot.

Recruiting Application	Client Work Application
Research firms, roles, and people before outreach so you know who you’re talking to	Build a fact base from filings, news, competitor data, industry reports

Outside-In Sources:

Source Type	Examples
Financial	10-Ks, earnings transcripts, investor presentations
News	Press releases, trade publications, analyst coverage
Competitive	Competitor filings, industry reports, market research
Expert	Interviews, surveys, published interviews
Digital	Web traffic, social sentiment, job postings

The Trust Equation for Networking:

When building relationships (a form of fact-gathering), remember:

\[Trust = \frac{Credibility + Reliability + Intimacy}{Self\text{-}Orientation}\]

Credibility: Do you know what you’re talking about?
Reliability: Do you do what you say?
Intimacy: Can they be vulnerable with you?
Self-Orientation: Are you in it for you or them?

Session 10 Activity: Build an Outside-In Fact Base

Recruiting: Research firms, roles, and people before outreach

Build a comprehensive fact base on your target firms and the people you’ll network with.

Help me build an outside-in fact base for networking with [FIRM NAME]:

**Firm Research**
1. What are the firm's recent news and press releases?
2. What major projects or deals have they publicized?
3. What is their stated strategy and priorities?
4. Who are the partners/principals in my target practice area?

**People Research**
For [CONTACT NAME] I'm meeting with:
5. What is their career path and background?
6. What content have they posted or shared on LinkedIn?
7. What might we have in common?

**Role Research**
8. What does a typical day look like for an analyst/associate at this firm?
9. What projects do people at my level work on?
10. What skills and experiences do they develop?

**Intelligence for Conversation**
Based on this research:
- What 3 questions should I ask that show I've done my homework?
- What aspects of my background should I highlight?
- What can I offer or share that might be valuable to them?

Client Work: Build fact base: financials, strategy, competitors, news

Systematically gather outside-in data on your target company from public sources.

Help me build a comprehensive fact base for [COMPANY NAME]:

**Financial Data**
1. Revenue, growth rate, and trends (3-5 years)
2. Profitability metrics: gross margin, operating margin, net margin
3. Cash flow and balance sheet health
4. Segment breakdown and performance by segment

**Strategic Information**
5. Management's stated strategy from earnings calls/investor day
6. Recent strategic moves: M&A, partnerships, restructuring
7. Key initiatives and investments

**Competitive Intelligence**
8. Main competitors and their market positions
9. How does performance compare to competitors?
10. What are competitors doing that this company isn't (and vice versa)?

**News and Trends**
11. Recent news: what's happened in the last 6-12 months?
12. Industry trends affecting the company
13. Analyst opinions and price targets

**Summary Fact Base**
Organize all findings into a structured document I can reference throughout my project.

Session 11 Activity: The Trust Equation

Recruiting: Trust Equation prep for smoothie chats

Apply the Trust Equation to prepare for networking conversations (“smoothie chats”).

Help me prepare for a smoothie chat using the Trust Equation:

**The Trust Equation**: Trust = (Credibility + Reliability + Intimacy) / Self-Orientation

**My Meeting**
- Person: [NAME]
- Company: [FIRM]
- Context: [How we connected, what I'm hoping to discuss]

**Credibility: How can I show I know what I'm talking about?**
- What research have I done on their firm/role?
- What relevant experience or knowledge do I have?
- What thoughtful questions show depth of understanding?

**Reliability: How can I demonstrate follow-through?**
- How will I prepare thoroughly before the meeting?
- What specific commitments can I make and keep?
- How will I follow up professionally after?

**Intimacy: How can I create genuine connection?**
- What might we have in common?
- How can I be authentic about my interests and journey?
- What's a genuine reason I want to talk to this person specifically?

**Self-Orientation: How do I keep it low?**
- What can I offer them (insight, help, connection)?
- How do I show genuine curiosity vs. just "asking for things"?
- What questions focus on learning about them vs. pitching myself?

Help me plan specific talking points that maximize trust.

Client Work: Outside-in research workshop: earnings calls & news

Practice extracting insights from earnings calls and news to build your fact base.

Help me analyze [COMPANY NAME]'s most recent earnings call:

**Pre-Call Prep**
1. What were analyst expectations going into this quarter?
2. What were the key questions from the prior quarter?

**Management's Narrative**
3. What story is management telling about performance?
4. What are they emphasizing vs. downplaying?
5. What language patterns suggest confidence vs. concern?

**Q&A Analysis**
6. What questions did analysts ask?
7. How did management respond? (Direct vs. evasive)
8. What topics seemed to make management uncomfortable?

**Key Takeaways**
9. What 3 things did I learn that weren't obvious from the numbers?
10. What does this tell me about the company's strategy and outlook?
11. What questions do I now want to research further?

**News Cross-Reference**
12. How does what management said align with recent news?
13. Are there any contradictions or inconsistencies?

Synthesize into 5 key insights for my analysis.

2.3 State Assumptions Explicitly (5) ◯ ◯

Make your assumptions visible and find good proxies

You never have perfect data. Make your assumptions explicit so others can evaluate them.

Recruiting Application	Client Work Application
When estimating in case interviews, state your assumptions clearly	Document all assumptions; find proxies when direct data isn’t available

Assumption Best Practices:

State assumptions at the start of any analysis
Distinguish facts from assumptions
Use ranges when uncertain
Identify which assumptions matter most (sensitivity)
Find proxies: “We don’t have X, but Y is a reasonable proxy because…”

2.4 Bound Answers with Quick Math (5)

Establish reasonable ranges before building complex models

Before building complex models, do quick math to establish reasonable ranges.

Recruiting Application	Client Work Application
Case interviews: market sizing, estimation problems	Bound the answer before diving deep: is this a $10M or $10B opportunity?

Market Sizing Framework:

Define what you’re sizing: Be specific
Choose an approach: Top-down or bottom-up
Identify key drivers: What factors determine the answer?
Make explicit assumptions: State them clearly
Do the math: Keep it simple, round numbers
Sanity check: Does the answer make sense?

Example: Coffee Cups in Manhattan

Population of Manhattan: ~1.6M
% who drink coffee: ~60% = ~1M coffee drinkers
Cups per day: ~2 = ~2M cups/day
Add commuters/tourists: +50% = ~3M cups/day

Session 12 Activity: Quick Math & Estimation

Recruiting: Case—market sizing under pressure

Practice market sizing with explicit assumptions under interview-like time pressure.

Give me a market sizing case to practice:

**Setup**
1. Give me a market sizing question appropriate for consulting interviews
2. I have 3 minutes to structure my approach, then walk through my answer

**My Approach**
[I'll work through this, then paste my approach]

**Feedback on My Answer**
Once I share my approach:
1. Is my structure logical and MECE?
2. Are my assumptions reasonable and clearly stated?
3. Did I do the math correctly?
4. Is my final answer in the right order of magnitude?
5. What would have made my answer stronger?

**Practice Variant**
Give me a follow-up question that tests my assumptions or pushes on a different angle.

Client Work: Size opportunities with explicit assumptions

Apply market sizing to estimate the opportunity size for your target company.

Help me size a specific opportunity for [COMPANY NAME]:

**Opportunity to Size**
[Describe: e.g., "market for their new product line," "revenue potential of geographic expansion," "addressable market for a new service"]

**Sizing Approach**
1. **Top-Down Approach**
   - Start with total market size
   - Apply relevant filters to reach addressable market
   - Estimate company's realistic capture

2. **Bottom-Up Approach**
   - Identify key drivers (customers, units, price)
   - Estimate each driver with explicit assumptions
   - Build up to total opportunity

**My Assumptions**
For each key assumption:
- State the assumption
- Explain the rationale
- Note the confidence level (high/medium/low)
- Identify what data would validate it

**Sensitivity Analysis**
- What are the 2-3 assumptions that most affect the answer?
- What's the range if those assumptions are wrong by 50%?

**Conclusion**
- What's my point estimate?
- What's the realistic range?
- Is this a "big enough" opportunity to matter for the company?

2.5 Build Models and Run Sensitivities (5) ◯ ◯

Test how sensitive outcomes are to key assumptions

When more rigor is needed, build structured models and test how sensitive outcomes are to key assumptions.

Recruiting Application	Client Work Application
Case interviews: more complex estimation requiring a structured model	Build Excel models; test which variables drive the answer

Model Building Principles:

Separate inputs, calculations, outputs: Clear structure
Label everything: Units, sources, assumptions
Build in flexibility: Easy to change assumptions
Highlight key drivers: What moves the needle?
Run sensitivities: What if assumptions are wrong?

2.6 Synthesize into Clear Answers (6) 🔺

Climb from data to insight to recommendation

Analysis isn’t done until you’ve answered the question. “So what?” is the most important question.

Recruiting Application	Client Work Application
Case interviews: drive to a clear recommendation with supporting logic	Synthesize research into “so what” insights that directly answer the client’s question

Synthesis vs. Summary:

Summary	Synthesis
“We found X, Y, and Z”	“X, Y, and Z mean you should do A”
Lists facts	Draws conclusions
Describes	Recommends

The “So What” Ladder:

Data: “Revenue declined 15%”
Insight: “Revenue declined because we lost share in the premium segment”
Implication: “We need to reinvest in premium or accept margin erosion”
Recommendation: “Invest $10M in premium product refresh”

Always climb to recommendations.

Session 13 Activity: Synthesize—From Data to Insight

Recruiting: Case—driving to a recommendation

Practice the full synthesis arc in a case interview context: moving from data to insight to recommendation.

Help me practice synthesis in a case context:

**Case Setup**
Give me a case scenario with 3-4 data points I need to synthesize into a recommendation.

**My Synthesis**
[I'll analyze the data and provide my synthesis, then paste it]

**Feedback**
Once I share my synthesis:
1. Did I correctly identify the key insight from the data?
2. Is my "so what" clear and actionable?
3. Did I make the recommendation decision-focused (not just descriptive)?
4. What logical gaps exist in my reasoning?
5. How could I strengthen my synthesis?

**Pressure Test**
Ask me a follow-up question that challenges my synthesis or pushes for deeper insight.

Client Work: Synthesize research into “so what” insights

Take your fact base and research and synthesize it into actionable insights.

Help me synthesize my research on [COMPANY NAME] into key insights:

**My Research Summary**
[Paste 5-10 key findings from your fact base work]

**Synthesis Framework**
For each major finding, apply the "So What" Ladder:
1. **Data**: What's the fact?
2. **Insight**: What does it mean?
3. **Implication**: Why does it matter?
4. **Recommendation**: What should they do about it?

**Pattern Recognition**
- What themes emerge across multiple findings?
- What contradictions or tensions exist?
- What's the most important insight overall?

**Executive Summary**
Write a 3-sentence synthesis:
- Sentence 1: The situation (what's happening)
- Sentence 2: The insight (what it means)
- Sentence 3: The implication (what to do about it)

**Quality Check**
- Is my synthesis telling them something they don't already know?
- Is it actionable (not just interesting)?
- Is it supported by the evidence?

Session 14 Activity: Synthesis Workshop

Recruiting: Rapid synthesis exercises

Practice synthesizing quickly under time pressure—a critical case interview skill.

Help me practice rapid synthesis:

**Exercise 1: 60-Second Synthesis**
Give me 3 data points about a company. I have 60 seconds to synthesize them into a "so what."

**Exercise 2: Contradictory Data**
Give me 2-3 data points that seem to contradict each other. Help me synthesize them into a coherent insight.

**Exercise 3: Missing Data**
Give me an incomplete picture. What synthesis can I reach, and what caveats should I include?

**My Responses**
[I'll work through each exercise]

**Feedback**
For each exercise:
- How strong was my synthesis?
- What did I miss?
- How could I improve?

Client Work: P1 workshop—1-page diagnostic

Apply synthesis skills to create your P1 Company Diagnostic deliverable.

Help me draft my 1-page Company Diagnostic for [COMPANY NAME]:

**Diagnostic Framework**
Review my work so far and help me synthesize into P1 format:

1. **Company Overview (2-3 sentences)**
   - What does the company do?
   - What's their market position?

2. **Financial Health (key metrics with 3-year trends)**
   - Revenue trajectory
   - Profitability trends
   - Financial strengths/concerns

3. **Strategic Position**
   - Competitive advantages
   - Key vulnerabilities

4. **Key Challenges (2-3 strategic issues)**
   - What problems is the company facing?
   - Why do they matter?

5. **Initial Hypothesis (one area for consulting value-add)**
   - Where could consulting help?
   - What would you investigate?

**Format Check**
- Does everything fit on one page?
- Is each section clearly synthesized (not just data dump)?
- Are my insights actionable?

**Improvement Areas**
What's weak in my diagnostic and how should I strengthen it?

Putting It Together

The Get to the Right Answer actions flow:

Design Analysis → Build Fact Base → State Assumptions → Estimate/Bound → Model → Synthesize

You often iterate: synthesis reveals gaps that require more analysis. But you always end with a clear answer.

Practice This Week

Market sizing: Estimate the annual revenue of coffee shops within 1 mile of BYU campus
Outside-in research: Build a fact base on one of your target companies using only public sources
Synthesis: Take 3 facts you found and write a “so what” statement